NEW POLL: 📊 Nats fall behind Labour for the first time since April 2023 ⏰

Summer BBQ season is a time for reflection, including on the Government. It seems the economic headwinds, and December’s series of bad economic/fiscal news, is doing the Government no favours.

The poll sees National tumble 4.6 points to 29.6 percent and Labour up 4.0 points to 30.9 percent.

The ACT Party are down 2.2 points to 10.8 percent, whilst the Greens are up 1.2 points to 9.5 percent. New Zealand First is up 2.7 points to 8.1 percent, while Te Pāti Māori is down 0.2 points to 5.3 percent.

Converting the results to seats in Parliament, National and ACT would need NZ First to form a Government. The total number of seats for the Centre-right is 62 (-6), while the left has has 58 seats (+6).

Majority now say country headed in ‘wrong direction’ 👎

More concerning for the Beehive than the party vote numbers will be the sharp rise in the proportion of voters saying the country is headed in the “wrong direction”.

Country direction (sometimes referred to as “right track/wrong track” polling) is a barometer of the national mood and tends to be a leading (as opposed to lagging) indicator of a Government’s prospects of re-election.

The net country direction is down a whopping 17 points to negative 14 percent. 39 percent of New Zealanders think the country is headed in the right direction (down seven points), while 53 percent say the wrong direction (up 11 points) and 12 percent unsure.

The clear message from voters on what’s concerning them 📣

Each month our pollsters ask the 1,000 respondents for their most important issue that would influence their vote.

The results are loud and clear: cost-of-living and the economy are on voters’ minds, with the poll suggesting that New Zealanders are not backing Nicola Willis’ softly-softly approach to tackling the country’s economic woes or the Government’s overspending.

Despite the media’s attention on Māori / Treaty issues, just eight percent of respondents cited it as their major voting issue (compared to a combined 40 percent who said the economy or cost of living). Note too that the December poll (which these results are compared to) was just a few weeks after the high profile hīkoi.

For many families, Christmas has been a painful economic mirror, and this poll appears to reflect it – or as Bill Clinton’s campaign strategist, James Carville, famously said: “It’s the economy, stupid”.

(Credit:New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union)