NEW POLL: Labour’s lowest vote share since October 2025 as country direction lifts

The Greens have recorded the largest vote share fall of any party in this month’s Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll, and Labour has slipped to its lowest party-vote since October 2025 as optimism about the country’s direction lifts sharply this month.

The poll sees Labour down 0.7 points to 31.5 percent, while National is up 0.4 points to 30.5 percent. The Greens drop 1.1 points to 10.4 percent, while ACT drops 0.9 points to 6.9 percent.

New Zealand First is down 0.6 points to 10.8 percent, while Te Pāti Māori gains 0.3 points to 3.4 percent. ‘Other’ parties collectively gained 2.5 points to 6.5 percent.

Headline results and more information about the methodology can be found on the Taxpayers’ Union’s website at www.taxpayers.org.nz/july26_pollnztu

For the minor parties, TOP is on 3.3 percent (+0.1 point), Outdoors & Freedom is on 0.8 percent (+0.5 points), and the New Conservatives are on 0.4 percent (+0.2 points).

This month’s results are compared to the last Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll conducted in June 2026, available at www.taxpayers.org.nz/pollnztu_june2026.

The combined projected seats for the ‘Government Bloc’ (National, ACT, New Zealand First) remains at 62, while projected seats for the ‘Opposition Bloc’ (Labour, Greens, Te Pāti Māori) remains at 58. On these numbers, the ‘Government Bloc’ would still be able to form a Government.

Labour gains 1 seat to 41, while National gains 1 seat to 39. The Greens drop 1 seat to 13 and ACT drops 1 seat to 9. New Zealand First is unchanged on 14 seats, while Te Pāti Māori is unchanged on 4 seats.

Chris Hipkins has inched ahead of Christopher Luxon as preferred Prime Minister, on 19.2 percent (+2.1 points) against Luxon’s 19.1 percent (+0.3 points). Winston Peters is on 11.8 percent (-1.0 point) and David Seymour is on 5.1 percent (-1.2 points). Chlöe Swarbrick is on 4.6 percent (-3.5 points).

39.2 percent (+5.5 points) say the country is heading in the right direction, while 45.5 percent (-7.0 points) say the country is heading in the wrong direction.

The net country direction is -6.3 percent (+12.5 points), the highest figure since November 2025.

Commenting on the results, Taxpayers’ Union spokesperson Tory Relf said:

“In the weeks following the Greens’ proposals for new wealth and inheritance taxes launched with an $800 million mistake, and Labour’s recent contributions to their more than $8,000-per-household funding gap, both parties have taken a hit this poll.”

“While still the largest party, Labour has hit their lowest vote share since October last year. And with voters feeling a lot better about the country’s direction this month, the Coalition would still be able to form a Government on these results.”

Credit: New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union